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It’s a rainy night on the Seine at the 2024 Paris Olympics, and the City of Lights is living up to its name as the national team boats drift past, including the newly LeBron-led United States. We Americans had a point to prove. Back-to-back FIBA tournaments in 2019 and 2023 had ended without a medal, and the gold suddenly looked a lot less certain.
In the semi-final, the newly assembled Avengers very nearly crashed and burned. Serbia led from the first quarter, and Nikola Jokić, part-time superstar and full-time horse breeder, ran the show with 17 points and 11 assists. Bogdan Bogdanović added 20 of his own, and for a long stretch, LeBron, Durant, and Curry had no answer.
Then, Steph Curry decided he had seen enough. He dropped 36 points as the US erased a 17-point deficit, and a LeBron layup tied the game. Serbia surged back in front at 86-84, but Curry hit a three on the very next play and the Americans never trailed again. It was the biggest scare we had felt since Athens in 2004.
Serbia took the bronze with a triple-double from Jokić (19 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists) in a 93-83 win over Germany. The older Jokić outscored and outrebounded Franz Wagner, and it felt a lot like youth losing to experience. The final was meant to be a passing of the torch, LeBron against Wembanyama, but Curry stole the show in character with four straight threes and the night-night celebration.
The age and experience of the US were too much for a young France. Wembanyama, tears and all, was already looking ahead. “We have to learn, grow, and trust in the new generation, like we trusted in experience this year,” he said.
That is the version most of us remember. Here is the part we tend to skip. Two of the six oldest teams in Paris finished with a gold and a bronze medal, while the second-youngest team lost the final. On the surface, basketball is still an old man’s game.
But look at the old teams that did not win. Spain, the second-oldest squad in the field, failed to escape the group stage. Greece, the sixth-oldest and led by my new favourite player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, lost in the quarter-finals. Spain is arguably the second or third greatest national team ever, and Greece has a top-five player in the world, yet neither got near the podium.
So is it age, or is it just talent? I do not think it is either one on its own. The US and Serbia were old, but they were also loaded, with elite players all the way down the rotation. Greece had one superstar, and Spain had a fading core. Experience seems to reward the teams that already have the depth to use it.
The best proof came a year later at EuroBasket 2025 in Riga, Lithuania. Germany, world champions since 2023, went through the tournament unbeaten. They beat Luka Dončić’s Slovenia 99-91 in the quarter-finals, swept past Finland in the semi-finals, and edged Turkey 88-83 in a final with 15 lead changes. Dennis Schröder scored Germany’s last 6 points and walked away as MVP, with Wagner and Isaac Bonga doing plenty of damage too. The group was largely the same core that won the World Cup two years prior, and Schröder was happy to explain why it works. “We never shy away from the big moments,” he said afterwards.
A veteran leader, a star in his prime, and a group that has been together for years. That is the recipe. Giannis, meanwhile, finally got a medal with Greece, beating Finland for their first EuroBasket podium since 2009, though Turkey handed them a 94-68 beating in the semi-final on the way there.
Which brings us to Los Angeles in 2028. LeBron, Curry, and Durant are surely not playing, so the Americans need a new generation to carry the flag. Jokić will be 33 and Bogdanović 35, still dangerous but running out of runway. Spain will have a younger top player after the departure of Rudy Fernández. Dončić will be 29 and in his prime, but his exit to Germany raised the question of who stands next to him. Wagner will be 26, and Germany looks like the side best placed to turn a young star into a gold medal.
Then there is the matter of who actually shows up. Not every contract comes with Michael Jordan’s love-of-the-game clause, and the Nuggets and Heat would like their hundred-million-dollar assets in one piece, thank you. Expect a few big names to be mysteriously “resting.”
France remains the one team that seems to be dodging the ageing problem while still winning. If the Americans’ veteran experience was the standard in 2024, then Los Angeles will show whether Wemby’s France or Schröder’s Germany have made that standard obsolete. My bet is that the US keeps its grip for now. But basketball may still be an old man’s game, and the old men now need a very good supporting cast.
